Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the

Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 2

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties fell by the limit as a whole today. The settlement price of me0904 was 1776 yuan/ton, up -67 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 5304 batches (26520 tons) were traded throughout the day, 4785 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 14511 batches (72555 tons), an increase of 37 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

today's main variety 0904 fell. LANXESS invested 300million euros in its flagship plant in Antwerp, Belgium in 2004. The closing price was 1770. After that, the weakness was sorted out. When it reached the 1800 integer mark, it was sold off by the seller, and began to close down lightly at about 10:48; In the afternoon, the limit was not opened, and the limit fell again to close

message side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf 59 5 cents/gallon, FOB Rotterdam 157 Products made with these compounds exhibit the same elasticity, appearance and touch as latex 75 euros/ton. CFR China is at USD/ton level; CFR Southeast Asia is at USD/ton level

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation in East China was yuan/ton, the low-end price fell by 50 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation in South China was yuan/ton, the low-end price fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the high-end price fell by 20 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation in North China is yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable

(3) manufacturers/upstream dynamics:

today, the quotation of most domestic methanol manufacturers remained stable, the quotation of some manufacturers in Hebei increased, and the quotation of some manufacturers in Henan decreased. It was reported yesterday that the coal price in Qinhuangdao Port stopped sharply this week after a triple dip for three consecutive weeks (an average decline of about 100 yuan per ton per week). According to the data of China's coal resources, the closing quotation of Datong Youhun in Qinhuangdao port on Monday was 680 yuan/ton -700 yuan/ton, Shanxi Youhun 570 yuan/ton -590 yuan/ton, ordinary mixed coal 400 yuan/ton -420 yuan/ton, Shanxi Dahuang 480 yuan/ton -500 yuan/ton, and ordinary mixed coal 350 yuan/ton -370 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous week (November 24), the above prices have not changed at all. At the end of last week, the international coal price fell below $80/ton. NYMEX crude oil futures for January closed down 5.156% overnight During the test, it is necessary to ensure that the vertical test dollar is reported at $49.28 per barrel

(4) supply dynamics:

Yunnan Yunwei methanol 200000/year methanol plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance next week for one month; In addition, the operating rate of 100000 t/a methanol plant is 50%, with a total daily output of more than 300 tons. The methanol plant of Shanxi Yongji Zhongnong Chemical Co., Ltd. has been shut down since November 10, and has been restored at the end of the month. At present, its combined methanol unit mainly produces urea, and the output of methanol is very limited, with a daily output of about dozens of tons, at 1900 yuan/ton. The 60000 T/a methanol plant in Hunan Yihua is still in shutdown state. According to the manufacturer, the plant can be restarted tomorrow. At present, the manufacturer has no inventory, and the external quotation is suspended

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market shows a downward trend in the medium term; Short term weak shock; The day closed below 1800 support

(2) K-line shape and volume price relationship: the negative line was closed for the fourth consecutive day, and the transaction volume was significantly reduced due to the closing of the offer, and the order volume was slightly reduced. The energy of market decline has not been fully released, and there is still room for decline in the short term

(3) moving average system (4,9,18), support pressure: from the daily chart, the 4-day moving average crosses 9 days downward twice; Short (divergent) arrangement on the 60 minute chart. Short term reference support level 1670, pressure level 1800, 1850

(4) indicators: on the daily chart, the rapid line below MACD zero axis stopped rising; KD index has no obvious signal. On the 60 minute chart, the short position below MACD zero axis; KD indicators continue to move down in oversold areas. Overall, the indicators tend to be empty

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: due to the sharp decline in international crude oil today, which affects market sentiment, A. A. C. polymers company in East China pointed out that although the outgoing shipholders tried to stick to the offer of more than 5000, but in the case of insufficient buying, the intraday quotation finally fell below the price of about 5000 yuan/ton to yuan. The intraday quotation of styrene in South China was about 5000 yuan/ton (self raised), and the market price rose due to the increase of refinery quotation. (personal view, for reference only)

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