Most popular Lin Yifu the Belt and Road brings exc

2022-09-22
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On March 22, 2016, Professor Lin Yifu, honorary Dean of the National Development Institute of Peking University, former senior vice president of the world bank and chief economist, said at the Boao Forum for Asia 2016 annual meeting. What has the "the Belt and Road" initiative brought to Asia? In Lin Yifu's view, infrastructure construction and the transfer of China's labor-intensive industries have brought new development opportunities to emerging economies. Lin Yifu, honorary president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, former senior vice president of the world bank and chief economist, China was still a relatively closed economy in 1979. In the "miraculous changes" from 1979 to 2015, China's average annual economic growth rate reached 9.7%; According to the purchasing power evaluation, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy in 2014. What is the secret of China's economic miracle? In Lin Yifu's view, "the most important reason is that China has adopted a very pragmatic transformation and opening-up strategy during the reform and opening-up; it has adopted a pragmatic, gradual and dual track reform and transformation." At the same time, making full use of international and domestic markets and resources, "building roads before becoming rich" is also valuable experience in the process of China's reform and opening up

economic principles in "road connectivity"

"road connectivity" is the primary content of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, and the importance of infrastructure for economic development can be explained by the basic principles of economics. Lin Yifu pointed out that the most important market thought in Adam Smith's wealth of nations is that the wider the scope of the market and the finer the division of labor, each country and region can better give play to its advantages, exchange its own advantages with other regions, and form a win-win situation for all parties

"how wide and large the market is depends on how high the transaction costs are." Lin Yifu pointed out, "one of the most critical factors in determining market transaction costs is infrastructure." In terms of China's experience, the more perfect the infrastructure and road connectivity are, the more China can expand the scope of the market, ensure the acquisition of scarce natural resources, and China's advantageous products can also enter a larger market

for the current developing economies, infrastructure construction is one of the most core needs. "Most developing countries have great bottlenecks in their economies, one of which is the shortage of infrastructure, which makes it difficult for many countries to give full play to their advantages." Lin Yifu pointed out, "the entry point of the the Belt and Road initiative is that infrastructure connectivity brings communication and circulation in trade, humanities and culture. This initiative is a new opportunity for countries along the the Belt and Road, especially Asian countries."

as a country that has achieved economic miracle, China has its own advantages in proposing the "the Belt and Road" initiative. Lin Yifu said, "first of all, China's engineering construction capacity in infrastructure construction should be the most competitive in the world at present; China's material industries required for infrastructure construction - steel bars, cement, etc. are also the most competitive in the world; for the funds required for these infrastructure construction, China has a foreign exchange reserve of $3.3 trillion, which is also the most sufficient condition."

historical opportunities of the "the Belt and Road" countries: the transfer of labor-intensive industries in China

Lin Yifu also pointed out, "there is another condition that you may not pay much attention to in China. In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has developed very fast. One of the main reasons is that it has completed the transformation from an agricultural economy to an industrialized economy, and the starting point of this transformation is to develop those labor-intensive processing industries." At present, China has become a country with upper middle income. Due to the rise of wages, the labor-intensive processing industry that originally made China a world factory gradually loses its comparative advantage. Therefore, the processing industry will be transferred to countries with relatively low wages

Lin Yifu pointed out, "from the history since the Second World War, it can be found that which developing country has seized the window of opportunity for the international transfer of labor-intensive processing industry, this developing economy can achieve 20 or 30 years of rapid development, from low income to middle income and even to high income." Historical evidence shows that Japan seized the opportunity of wage rise in the United States after World War II, so labor-intensive textile and other processing industries were transferred to Japan, making Japan achieve rapid development after the war. In the 1960s, when wages rose in Japan and labor-intensive processing industries gradually lost their comparative advantages, the four Asian dragons, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong and Singapore, seized the window of opportunity to develop these labor-intensive processing industries, which also achieved rapid development for 20 or 30 years, from low income to middle income, and now is high income. China's reform and opening up also happened to seize the window of opportunity for the four Asian tigers to transfer manufacturing, making China's labor-intensive industry develop rapidly and become a world factory

at present, the opportunity for the transfer of labor-intensive industries in China is a great window for countries along the "the Belt and Road". "The scale of this transfer of labor-intensive industries in China is much larger than that of Japan in the 1960s and Asia in the 1980s." Lin Yifu made this comparison from the scale of manufacturing labor force: "In the 1960s, Japan employed 9.7 million people in the manufacturing industry, in the 1980s, South Korea employed 2.3 million people in the whole manufacturing industry, our Taiwan employed 1.5 million people, Hong Kong employed 1 million people, and Singapore 500000 people. When China began to transfer this time, China employed 125 million people in the whole manufacturing industry. Today, Jinan trial focuses on introducing the protection method of hydraulic jaw of tensile testing machine With a population of 85million, the employment opportunities of 85million will be transferred to countries with relatively low wages in the next five or ten years

along the "the Belt and Road", the wages of most countries are more than half that of China. At present, the wages of these blue collar workers who have just graduated from junior high school and high school and entered the factory are generally more than $600 a month. Therefore, if these countries along the "the Belt and Road" can seize this opportunity, they can achieve the rapid development of China, the four tigers of Asia or Japan after the war

"the Belt and Road" win-win development and developed economies

however, Lin Yifu also stressed: "There are conditions to seize this opportunity. On the one hand, it is the policy environment, and on the other hand, it is the improvement of infrastructure. So I believe that the 'the Belt and Road' strategy, on the one hand, depends on the interconnection of infrastructure, so that joining ABS can also significantly improve the impact intensity. Countries can make full use of the domestic market and the international market, combine their domestic resources with international resources, and then seize the transformation of China's labor-intensive processing industry I believe that other developing countries can also achieve high-speed growth for more than 30 years like China after the 1980s, and can also achieve high-speed growth like Japan and the four Asian dragons after the war. This can be said to be the greatest opportunity for all developing countries, especially for developing countries in Asia. "

Lin Yifu also believes that "this opportunity is not only for developing countries, but also for developed countries." Lin Yifu believes that the current developed countries have not really recovered from the international financial and economic crisis in 2008. Now the new international term for describing developed countries is "new mediocre stage". "For developed countries, what is most needed at present is the rapid growth of other parts of the world, providing them with markets and demand, so that their economies can recover. The interconnection of infrastructure under the the Belt and Road initiative and the opportunity to seize the window of China's industrial transfer. Developing countries, which account for 85% of the world's population or 85% of the world's population, are likely to enter a new era, an era of rapid development, which is not just China's reality Now, the Chinese dream of turning China into a high-income country is also an opportunity to establish an industrial alliance in the field of Taolu new material diesel engine, so that all developing countries can realize modernization and become the dream of developed countries. "

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